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Update – Mexico Maya Hvy Crude expected fall -10% 2011 a 15yr low

Home Forums Coking News: DCU, Upgrader 1.Coker (registered users only) Update – Mexico Maya Hvy Crude expected fall -10% 2011 a 15yr low

This topic contains 2 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  Charles Randall 10 years, 4 months ago.

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  • #2376

    basil parmesan
    Participant

    Feb Update -Pemex exports avg 900000 bpd Maya oil from Cayo Arcas in Jan 2011Feb 9, 2011 Pemex exports avg 900000 bpd Maya oil from Cayo Arcas in Jan 2011,(ADPnews)

     
                                                                ———–
    FACTBOX-Five facts about Mexico’s Maya heavy crude oil blend
    n”>Jan 5, 2011 (Reuters) – Exports of Mexico’s Maya heavy crude oil blend are expected to fall by more than 10 percent in 2011 due to increased domestic demand and a lack of new production.
    Following are facts about Maya crude:
    * Maya is a heavy crude oil with an API specific gravity between 21 and 22 degrees, meaning only the most sophisticated refineries are capable of profitably processing it.
    * Maya is a blend of crude oils from the Cantarell and Ku Maloob Zaap oil fields. The discovery of Cantarell, once one of the world’s most prolific oil fields, turned Mexico into a major oil exporter in the 1980s.
    * Exports peaked at 1.622 million barrels per day in 2004 after a major redevelopment of Cantarell lifted output from the field above 2 million bpd. But production and exports have fallen sharply since then as Cantarell has lost production capacity.
    * New production from Ku Maloob Zaap has partially offset the decline of Cantarell, but exports slipped to 968,000 bpd in the first 11 months of 2010. Overseas sales will fall by at least 110,000 bpd in 2011 due to the expansion of Mexico’s Minatitlan refinery.
    * Valero (444,000 bpd), ExxonMobil^ (145,000 bpd), and Chevron (102,000 bpd) were the top Maya non-Pemex affiliated Maya buyers in October 2010, according to the U.S. government. The Shell-Pemex Deer Park joint venture refinery near Houston processed 243,000 bpd of Maya in October while Mexican refineries averaged 453,000 bpd processed in the first 11 months of 2010.
    (^ including Chalmette Refining joint venture) (Reporting by Robert Campbell; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

  • #5261

    Charles Randall
    Participant

    Here is an update on the early Feb numbers for Jan 2011 exports of Maya Crude are reported to be 900,000 bpd and in line with the expectations of Oil Industry Jan Articles around an expected fall of 10% for 2011 would represent a 15 year low in Maya exports.
     
    Although decreased production & increased demand lead the headlines – one real causes for recent sharp decline in Maya exports has been the Pemex Expansion and Upgrades to use heavy crude and convert fuel oil portion to gas & diesel products using new coking units. Minatitlan is the latest of the new coker additions (online ~Mar 2011) that were preceded by Cadereyta, Madero & Salina Cruz (may be delayed) adding delayed coking units (a fluid coker already existed at Tula Hidalgo) making the total coking capacity 230MBD at the end of 1Q2011. A coking Project is in process at Salamanca refinery and adding delayed coker at Tula is in planning (total 6 Pemex refinery expansions & coker additions counting a new 7th Grassroots refinery now postphoned/canceled).
     
    The large increase in coker charge capacity allows the combined refineries to process double that volume as additional Maya crude (~560MBD) thru these refineries (or swap out lighter more expensive domestic crudes for Maya).
     
    This becomes very good move for Pemex which prior to cokers had been selling cheap heavy crude & fuel oil and having to buy back expensive diesel product. But the US refineries, several of whom are joint ventures with Pemex, could suffer from the reduced crude supply unless Pemex finally opens exploration to US majors who have the capability to reach the large offshore Heavy Crude fields that Pemex has been unable to develop for offsetting the Cantrel & Zaap existing field production declines.
     
    Regards

  • #5260

    Charles Randall
    Participant

    One additional factor for Pemex Refineries adding cokers & processing more Maya – is of course that they are making a great deal more fuel grade petcoke. Prior to coker additions Mexico was one of the top ten Export countries for US which has export nearly 60% of its fuel coke production. (Similar thing is also occuring with another prime US export fuel coke market – Canada due to addition of many Upgrade cokers) 
     
    One of the top consumers Cemex  a leading cement company (who also owns several plants in the US) is JV for the Caderyata Coking unit and takes all of that plants fuel coke to make power for Cemex & for fuel in cement process.
     
    The high US export fuel coke prices and growing domestic fuel coke availiabilty has enabled Cemex to take strong positions for lower prices in spot markets.

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