July 20, 2011 at 4:34 pm #2186
The CemReview July Petcoke report is just out today. Appears that this Cement Industry Petcoke report is calling for continued price slide and growing inventories makiing their presence known by Q3/Q4 and with refiners unwilling hear change some liftings in August projected not to happen.
Price charts are showing a curve peak very similar one at end 2007/first 2008 with following collapse into minimum within year. The 2012 looks to be shaping up for market low at this point, refiners waiting to be ran over with facts before they adjust contract/market outlooks …… by then likely too late & will be sitting on full inventories.
Seems be combo drivers – US crudes ~$20/B below Brent margins driving cokers, Turkey switching from 4.5%S fuel coke to Volatile Coals, China stopping petcoke imports (since end Apr/May) and now trying export cokes, lot Cokers coming back online due spreads as well as new cokers completing – global completions as well – all are combining to put some serious production back on market for change at time when producers are entrenched on market price that has esentially evaporated.
<The Argus Petcoke Report and AZ Black China Petcoke reports fall somewhere along this info / views.>
Seems strange that according Jacobs Petcoke report green anode coke has booked $56+ increase for 2Q11 “A” type petcokes in ~$345/t range which means most types green blend cokes now sell for historical average calcined prices.
Looks like this may be part reason refiners / producers won’t see facts lining up on fuel side for price collapse since calcinable petcoke always gets more visibility with management than fuel coke does. But as I usually say when you lower floor it ….. also lowers the celing as well.
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