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OGJ WW & US Refining Survey Jan 2011 Cap

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This topic contains 1 reply, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  Charles Randall 11 years, 11 months ago.

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  • #2431

    basil parmesan
    Participant

     The latest OGJ Refinery Capacity PDF’s/Tables were just posted (Dec 6, 2010/Jan 1, 2011 Capacities).  I hadn’t  started looking for them yet ….. they usually don’t come out till the 3rd week in December on the web, but since Aug 2010 OGJ is only publishing first report of month  & rest are electronic.
     
    The OGJ putting them out this early means they didn’t change much from last years version which had lot of omissions & several coker errors ……. especially in China Refineries.
    The Special Report Article & the pdf versions ( but you will have to buy XLS versions ~$1000) are  ready to be downloaded (for OGJ members) with the following links for Survey records:
     
    OGJ Article Dec 6, 2010 Global Refining @ http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display/7057387312/articles/oil-gas-journal/volume-108/issue-46/special-report/global-capacity-growth-slows-but-asian.html
    OGJ Survey PDF spreadsheets for Dec 2010/Jan 2011 WW Refining Capacities @ http://www.ogj.com/index/ogj-survey-downloads.html

    Look under Refining Survey section for 2010 PDF files such as:
    2010-Worldwide-Refining-Survey.pdf
    Worldwide-Refining-Company-and-refinery-location.pdf
    Worldwide-Refineries-Capacities-as-of-January-1-2011.pdf
    US-Refineries-State-Capacities-as-of-January-1-2011.pdf
    (Also look at the recently posted construction survey Nov 2010 in that section. )


     
    When you have time to review and check PLEASE pass on any errors on the Coking Refinereis you find? I will do quick overview with some Refining errors and them overview on coking refinery errors to look out for (but will post these under Members Registered Section)
    Regards

  • #5367

    Charles Randall
    Participant

    I’ve done a quick look at US, WW & China comparing Dec2009-Jan2010 vs  Dec 2010-Jan 2011 and basically the numbers haven’t changed much…..and unfortunately neither did lot the errors, especially those in China were repeated.

     
    The US has easy correction since EIA has their own table (since ~2001 when OGJ delisted +17 simple asphalt refineries that are still operating) so the 129 refineries for 2010 (down by 1 since Western integrated two New Mexico refineries into one) is really 146 or 149 according EIA.  They also don’t have lot new capacity increases from 2008-2010 logged in on coking refineries (ie Sinclair Wyoming coker isn’t listed, Coffeyville Kansas expansion coker & crude cap isn’t shown). 
     
    The World Wide tables ex-US also havent changed much they added 4 new refineries but took off 3 of them so they only showed an increase of refinery in total of 662. If you add corrections for US asphalt refineries +17, and China true total ~+151 (56Gov + 95 Indep) vs their 48 = +103 you get total of 782 refineries (but doesn’t include new grassroot additions that were overlooked). It is comparatively worse for coker charge & petcoke tpd since nearly half the China refineries have cokers, none Mexico tpd is shown and several additions haven’t been made.
     
    China is almost the same as last year – they have mutiple entries with same location but different refineries and show almost none of the independent refineries. They have total of 54 refineries and only 8 cokers (they show 12 but 4 are: Eureka, RHDS & other thermal)! Compared to over 82 cokers I had in 2008 before the new coker additions 2009 & 2010.  These type errors completely misrepresent the actual size of China’s capacity and coking position – even Jacobs & others only have about 37-40 of government coking refineries and about 15-23 of independent coking refineries listed (they don’t really track lot simple refineries without cokers).
     
    Another one still really screwed up was Mexico – they finaly increased cokers by 100MBD in 2010 for 2 of 3 new cokers they left off  ….. but have NONE of fuel coke tpd production shown!!
     
    I usually try go through and get major errors & send to OGJ (seldom register until lot my contacts start bitching at them) and then post & distribute some big holes like these to get more aware of slopy job they are doing on updates these days, and the crazy delisting of any plants not making finished fuel products?
     
    The reason I do this grief is that basically EIA & IEA use the OGJ WW database for WW input to do their Short & Long Term forecast and historical views and its also used as starting point by all big outfits like CERA, Purvin & Gertz, Woodmac and others, although they claim to have their own database, only few have caught errors.
    Regards

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