December 13, 2010 at 1:03 am #2430
I have just posted under the Refining News section info on OGJ WW Refinery Survey PDF’s Dec 6 2010 – Jan 1 2011 Capacities – see same links below:
Reference : OGJ Article Dec 6, 2010 Global Refining @ http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display/7057387312/articles/oil-gas-journal/volume-108/issue-46/special-report/global-capacity-growth-slows-but-asian.html
OGJ Survey PDF spreadsheets for Dec 2010/Jan 2011 WW Refining Capacities @ http://www.ogj.com/index/ogj-survey-downloads.html
I mentioned some of the obvious errors on Refining News Post but there are lot more errors than ones I mentioned earlier on Phase I Refinery/coking errors (= Mexico, China & US Asphalt omissions).
So here is quick update or ~a Phase II error review for few additional coker unit errors:
WW: Argentina Shell – no tpd petcoke, Brazil Petrobras Rio no coker charge, Chile Empress Aconcagua coker left off, Egypt Midor Expansion not included +30MBD, Greece Hellenic new Flexicoker left off, India IOC Koyali new coker left out, (& Panipats coker s/up early next year), Reliance new addition left off +100MBD/8000tpd new coker, Japan Cosmo Sakai new coker left out, Japan JEA Okayama & JEX Mizushima coker tpd left off, Netherlands XOM Rotterdam flexicoker no tpd, Norway Mongstad coker expansion/debottleneck not added in, Russia several cokers wrong type noted & some rate increase not in or rates missing, Spain CEPSA Huelva & Petronor Bilbo cokers missing, Sudan Khartoum 2006 coker missing, Turkey Ismit FW coker missing (&/or expansion delayed?),
US: Alabama Hunt Tuscaloosa coker 16 mbd exp not shown, Delaware PFB idled Fluid coker charge not shown, Illinois Citgo Lemont coker charge not reflect 10 MBD needle drums tied fuel coker, WRB Woodriver 59MBD Exp not shown (90% complete & S/up 4Q11) – only Hartford 16MBD coker, Kansas Coffeyville Coker not show 2008 exp to 49 mbd, & Frontier El Dorado not show add cap from drum replace 2008, Louisiana Chalmette Coker not showing idled anode coker cap, MAP Garyville coker show exp charge but not right tpd?, Mississippi CVX Pascagoula coker not show +6mbd due add +10″ diam drums on replacements, Montana CHS Laurel coker missing tpd, Oklahoma Holly – has 2 lines instead combined Sunoco & Sinclair refineries, Texas Motiva & Total Pt Arthur already showing new cokers charge but no tpd, Texas WRB Borger coker +25MBD add online 2011 not shown, Wyoming Sinclair relocated 2008 coker still not shown 20MBD.
There are also missing few WW/US refinery name changes, and several coker charge/tpd rates slightly lower but not major issue.
January 26, 2011 at 2:52 pm #5317
Here is follow-up email on some big errors in the OGJ WW Refinery Suvery 2011 for China cokers. Since this survey is used by EIA/IEA & lot major Oil Consultants for forecast basis it creates real accuracy issue!
I have emails sent to few the petcoke reporters (CRU/Jacobs/AZ Blk China/Argus/ Purvin Gertz/CERA ect) trying to confirm what they are using to compare against what I think is being produced and what existing capacity really is in China. Perhaps this helps (so far none groups confirmed this is what they are showing in their reports/presentations). All report values are much better than low number of 8 cokers listed in OGJ …. but somewhat below full listing of current operable (Idle + Operating) China cokers.
Also as point correction/clarity point here – When I refer to “cokers” below it means refinery “coking site” with at least one “coking unit”. Nearly half of these coking sites now have their second or third coking unit installed – as you know/have seen.
About half of China production is anode/calcined grade (somewhere ~8-11 MM mtpy) and half fuel grade of total 16-25 MM mtpy production ….wide range depending on whose numbers you use. These were 2009/2010 estimates after ~5MM mtpy new production came online. Best estimates are for another 5-6MM mtpy to come online between 2010-2015. Hope this helps.
China Prod & Capacity:
See if these estimates for various agencies look right to you on China capacity & production petcoke (total green not just calcined) from what you have seen from recent reports or studies:
Petcoke Reporter #1 China: (cokers 79/48 operating) total capacity ~29 MM mtpy petcoke and ~19 MM mtpy production
Petcoke Reporter #2 China: (cokers 56/43 operating) total capacity ~ 25 MM mtpy petcoke and ~15 MM mtpy produciton
Petcoke Reporter #3 China: (cokers 82/59 operating) total capacity ~34 MM mtpy petcoke and ~ 19 MM mtpy production
Petcoke Reporter #4 China: (cokers 56/45 operating) total capacity ~24 MM mtpy petcoke and ~ 12-14 MM mtpy production
CRandall China: (cokers 86/61 operating) total capacity ~39 MM mtpy petcoke and ~ 20-25 MM mtpy production
<OGJ China: (cokers 8) total capacity ~ 1.6 MM mtpy petcoke and N/A MM mtpy production>
I’m trying to nail down what China petcoke capacity & production really is to get handle on cokers/refineries to put in spreadsheet.
Everyone seems have about same numbers on Governments big 3 (Sinopec, CNPC & CNOOC) which is ~44-52 cokers with capacity of 18-23 MM mtpy petcoke and probable min production level of 16-20 MM mtpy.
The rub comes in everyone underestimating the Independent refinery cokers. There are 40-44+ coking refineries with capacity of 16-20 MM mtpy petcoke but since only half are operating (20+ cokers) would give about 8-10 MM mtpy petcoke, which at min utilization 65-80% would give production level of 6.5 MM mtpy. Which is only one large scale equivalent coking refinery production but long way from “not that much” according to several of experts. (And hell long way from OGJ survey value of only 4 kmtpd or 1.1 MM mtpy for all China petcoke production!)
And as crosscheck most folks agree that at least ~17 of largest Shandong independents are operating providing about 85-100% of total independent refinery production – just so happens those top 20 in that region are all coking refineries. Since both cokers & refineries cannot turndown below a 65% utilization even in batch without major problems sort fixes it for the half that operates.
So that now gives us total “operating” capacity of 26-30 MM mtpy (“operable” capacity still remains 34-43 MM mtpy) and estimated operating production of 24 MM mtpy petcoke. But think on “operable” capacity would be back closer original estimates since most independent can start up in batch operation within same time frame as normal shutdown. And so the actual production volume would look like much lower utilization total below the 50% range. …….. perhaps.
Anyway still depends lot on conjecture since tracking tons which are largely used domestic/regional would be fairly invisible compared to US which has export +60% of its coke make. But I think it starts framing China as much larger player & total global petcoke production at ~+15 MM mtpy higher than any experts are showing.
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