Refining Community Logo

Hurricane/Winter Forecast – No more Gulf / Normal Winter WC & EC

Home Forums Coking Maintenance Shutdown/Turnaround Hurricane/Winter Forecast – No more Gulf / Normal Winter WC & EC

This topic contains 1 reply, has 2 voices, and was last updated by  Charles Randall 10 years, 6 months ago.

  • Author
    Posts
  • #2492

    basil parmesan
    Participant

    Forecast: No more hurricane threats this year for U.S. Gulf petrochems
    Oct 20, 2010 – Any threat of refinery interruptions and damages to oil platforms from hurricanes seems unlikely for the rest of the year, as a new weather pattern during the Northern Hemisphere’s autumn generally protects the Gulf of Mexico from Atlantic Ocean storms, meteorologists said. “Essentially, the 2010 hurricane season is over for the Gulf energy-production region. … virtually no threat remains for a damage-producing hurricane to hit the densely populated rig, platform and refinery facilities,” a Planalytics meteorologist said.
                                ————

    Strong La Nia forecast through spring 2011: CPC

    Posted On: Oct. 07, 2010 11:00 AM CENTRAL
    [align=right]

    NEW YORK (Reuters)-La Nia will last until spring 2011, raising the prospect of more rain and snow in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and the chance of storms late in the hurricane season, the U.S. government’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday.
                        ————–
    Winter Forecast 2010-2011: Heavier Snow for Chicago, Minneapolis and Detroit, Normal Snowfall for NYC, Philly and D.C.

    Sep 8, 2010; 4:52 PM ET

    The major metropolitan areas of the mid-Atlantic that were pummeled with snow last year will get a break this winter, but that doesn’t mean there will be no snow to shovel. In contrast, Chicago, Milwaukee and Minneapolis could be in the heaviest snow zone this upcoming winter.

    Winter’s Worst Cold and Snow
    Overall, AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Joe Bastardi is predicting that the worst of winter’s cold and snow will be from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains and western Great Lakes. That will put cities like Portland and Seattle that escaped with a very nice winter last year, colder and snowier this year. Fargo and Minneapolis to Green Bay will also receive above-normal winter snowfall.
    Other cities predicted to receive above-normal winter snowfall include Chicago, Omaha, Minneapolis, Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle and Portland.
    Bastardi predicts severe cold will hit Alaska and western and central Canada.
    “The Canadian winter will be as harsh as last year’s was gentle,” Bastardi said.
    Wintry Battle Zone But No Snowmageddon
    In general, the East Coast will be granted a reprieve from the tremendous snowfall that caused 2009-2010’s winter to be dubbed “snowmageddon.”
    This does not mean a free pass for the Northeast. Bastardi predicts late November and December could get winter off to a fast start in the East, with a major thaw coming for much of the country in January.
    Bastardi makes the early cold connection between this year’s active hurricane season and his winter forecast.
    He said that years that see significant landfall, such as 1995, 2008 and 2005, usually also have cold for much of the eastern and central portions of the nation in December.
    He said this year from the central Rockies to the Northeast a higher variance of temperatures will be present – “greater-than-normal swings between winter’s coldest and warmest days.” The conflicting warm and cold air masses contributing to these temperature fluctuations have placed this area into what Bastardi calls the “Wintry Battle Zone.”
    Despite the wild swings in temperatures, cities like New York, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., will still have near-normal snowfall. To put this in perspective, New York City receives an average of 28.4 inches of snowfall during winter.
    Warmer and Drier South
    The South and southern Plains will escape the worst of the winter weather with warmer and drier conditions compared to last year. Dallas, which received near-record snowfall last year, will be lucky to get normal snowfall this year.
    While these areas will be warmer and drier, this does not preclude the southern Plains and South from the threat of a couple of ice storms, as cold air tries to intrude southward.
    The best weather this winter will be in Florida. Bastardi suggests that Florida will be a great winter destination, with warmer-than-normal temperatures all winter long. We will also see warmer weather all along the Gulf coast, which could help the beach resorts recover from the economic downturn associated with the oil spill.
    Southern California May Suffer from Drought
    Southern California and portions of the Southwest could be threatened by a severe drought and high danger for wildfires, as Bastardi predicts a much drier-than-normal winter season for the region.
    According to AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist and West Coast Expert Ken Clark, strict water management for Southern California could result come next spring and summer.
    However, Bastardi predicts that from San Francisco and areas to the north, there could be more precipitation.
    “This may be a great winter for building the Pacific Northwest and Canada snowpack, which is opposite of last winter,” said Bastardi.
    Temperatures this Winter
    Temperature-wise, Bastardi is forecasting slightly higher-than-normal temperatures (0.5 to 1 degree warmer) for Boston, Washington, D.C., and New York City.
    Detroit, Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis will be a degree or so cooler than average, while much of the western part of the nation may see temperatures that dip a couple of degrees.
    Bastardi said Salt Lake City could be as much as 1-3 degrees colder, while Denver will be about 2 degrees below normal and both San Francisco and Los Angeles will have temperatures about 1.5 degrees cooler.
    Above-normal snowfall is predicted for the Great Basin region, the Northwest and northern Plains, while the South and Southwest will get less snow than average.
    Story by Kirstie Hettinga, Carly Porter and Henry Margusity, AccuWeather.com Staff Writers.
    ————-
    Hurricane names for the current and future seasons are listed below. Particularly noteworthy (e.g. very deadly or very costly) hurricane names are retired. Prior to 1979 some names were just dropped and replaced. Presently, names are picked by a committee of the World Meteorological Organization. Names are subject to change due to retirements and changes however we update as needed and as soon as we are aware of changes.
    Atlantic Hurricane Names
    2010 Hurricane Names: Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Igor Julia Karl Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter
    2011 Hurricane Names: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney
    2012 Hurricane Names: Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William
    2013 Hurricane Names: Andrea Barry Chantal Dean Erin Felix Gabrielle Humberto Ingrid Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Noel Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy
    2014 Hurricane Names: Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gustav Hanna Ike Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paloma Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred
    2015 Hurricane Names: Ana Bill Claudette Danny Erika Fred Grace Henri Ida Joaquin Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
    2006 Hurricane Names: Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William
    2007 Hurricane Names: Andrea Barry Chantal Dean Erin Felix Gabrielle Humberto Ingrid Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Noel Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy
    2008 Hurricane Names: Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gustav Hanna Ike Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paloma Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred
    2009 Hurricane Names: Ana Bill Claudette Danny Erika Fred Grace Henri Ida Joaquin Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda

    Pacific Hurricane Names2006 Hurricane Names:Aletta Bud Carlotta Daniel Emilia Fabio Gilma Hector Ileana John Kristy Lane Miriam Norman Olivia Paul Rosa Sergio Tara Vicente Willa Xavier Yolanda Zeke
    2007 Hurricane Names:Alvin Barbara Cosme Dalila Erick Flossie Gil Henriette Ivo Juliette Kiko Lorena Manuel Narda Octave Priscilla Raymond Sonia Tico Velma Wallis Xina York Zelda
    2008 Hurricane Names:Alma Boris Cristina Douglas Elida Fausto Genevieve Hernan Iselle Julio Karina Lowell Marie Norbert Odile Polo Rachel Simon Trudy Vance Winnie Xavier Yolanda Zeke
    2009 Hurricane Names:Andres Blanca Carlos Dolores Enrique Felicia Guillermo Hilda Ignacio Jimena Kevin Linda Marty Nora Olaf Patricia Rick Sandra Terry Vivian Waldo Xina York Zelda
    2010 Hurricane Names:Agatha Blas Celia Darby Estelle Frank Georgette Howard Isis Javier Kay Lester Madeline Newton Orlene Paine Roslyn Seymour Tina Virgil Winifred Xavier Yolanda Zeke

  • #5460

    Charles Randall
    Participant

    Here are some current forecast – some projecting for no more Gulf Hurricanes, but still more for season.
    The ebb in Gulf Hurricane is typicall of seasonal patterns where largest number of Gulf Hurricanes occur between Apr-Aug while Sep-Nov Hurricanes are mainly off or along East Coast. Accounts for all the pre-March & post-Oct Gulf Maint & Turnaround schedules to escape those periods.
     
    And a forecast for 2010/2011 winter to be back normal vs last years snowmageddon, and lastly the storm names for 2011-2015 for Atlantic storms – current 2010 list is up to Richard the 17th for season.
     
    Course the weather is the only thing that has higher track record for being wrong than Petcoke or Oil Industry price short & long term forecast!
    Regards

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

Refining Community