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Hart Report Predicts Clean Diesel Grow Importance

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This topic contains 1 reply, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  Charles Randall 10 years, 1 month ago.

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  • #2499

    basil parmesan
    Participant

    10/15/2010
    Report Predicts Clean Diesel Will Grow in Importance

    With the United States moving to implement stronger environmental and fuel economy standards and expand the use of renewable fuels, clean diesel fuel is “poised to take on an even greater role in the U.S. transportation market,” according to a newly-released Hart Energy Consulting report.

    “Diesel: Fueling the Future of a Green Economy” was released this week by the Diesel Technology Forum in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Energy’s 2010-2011 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference at the National Press Club.

    “The growth in the diesel market has occurred throughout all regions of the world,” says The Hart Energy report. “Though not all areas have experienced substantial diesel penetration into the passenger vehicle market, growth in diesel demand has outpaced gasoline and other refined products in nearly all developing countries, including China. Diesel fuel is the workhorse of economies throughout the world.”

    The paper:

    * Reviews the past, present and future importance of diesel fuels to the U.S. and other global economies;

    * Highlights the fundamentals of petroleum refining relative to diesel fuel supply and demand along with current and future supply and demand trends;

    * Highlights the potential for greater use of diesel fuel in light duty vehicles, and related considerations including fuel taxation and incentive policies and the accessibility to diesel fuel at retail facilities.

    * Explains the role of renewable diesel fuels, reviews future investments in diesel refining capacity, and identifies policies impacting diesel fuel refining and vehicle use in the future.

    For instance, the report points out that introduction of advanced diesel technology in 2007 that relied on ultra low sulfur clean diesel fuel has reduced emissions of particulate matter and nitrogen oxide by more than 98 percent in heavy-duty truck applications compared to 2000 models.

    It also points out that one of the key policy strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reliance on imported oil is to use more domestically produced fuel from a variety of plant and biomass feedstocks. The capability of diesel engines to use a range of renewable fuels and blends further enhances its potential for expanded use.

    Access the report online in PDF format : (http://www.dieselforum.org/news-center/pdfs/Diesel-FuelingFutureofGreen%

  • #5470

    Charles Randall
    Participant

    I finally got link to work on the  news release on Hart Study @ Diesel growing importance and the download:
    Access the report online in PDF format : (http://www.dieselforum.org/news-center/pdfs/Diesel-FuelingFutureofGreen%20Economy10-13-10.pdf )
     
    I dont think I believe the magnitude nor level of change on diesel, due to several bad assumptions by Hart.
     
    One – Hart is using the crap Well-to-Wheels process by environmentalist which is very flawed because it takes the 70%+ emissions problems from the “wheels” decision to use internal combustion engine vs electric car back to fuel source & its processing. Environmentalist couldnt get people buy into this change so they found way to destroy fuel supply of alternate via backdoor.
     
    Two – Hart is using past charts for declining Fuel Oil/Asphalt demand against increasing coker installations which convert this source to products (proportionally more diesel) to drive the large decrease in short time HFO to diesel. Actual charts now show increase in US & Global of HFO & Asphalt as surplus went away & price increased due demand leveraging additionally production (as charts 2006+ show) ….. also one reasons coker/refinery margins been much lower.
     
    Another part is that with new Marine Fuel regulations like Europe less 1%HFO in ports there is built in assumptions that most vessels will switch to more available diesel than expensive & limited LS HFO. This is also not true lot vessels now have engines capable switching between diesel & 3%HFO or blending the two …… its only older ships (most now going scrap as new faster double hulled vessels with new engine replace them) or smaller ones stay in coastal areas that are making cost switch to diesel.
     
    Third – The short term apparent growth in diesel vs gasoline in US (and countries past that exported gasoline to US) has more to do with the transportation sector growth in use of trucks & trains (NAFTA ect) for logistics and also the decline in US cars because of economy: ie jobless folks do min driving/more internet searches, unemployed drop to 1.5 vehicles compared to past 3-4 cars, unemployed teens (older folks took their jobs) cannot buy cars unless they dont go college & join lower levels workforce. And higher use of ETOH is backing out gasoline production.  None of these will persist to current levels in recovering economy (although excess levels past is likely gone for US).
     
    Fourth – No impact has been put in this study for a global refining model based on large volume of gasoline exports into short supplied US market going back to diesel model. The rest of the world is diesel based economy & past when US was balanced on production of domestic fuels – Nearly all current major export countries EU-CIS-China-ect had to operate below min turndown rates in the 58-75% Utilization rates. When US sour crude supplies return & refining utilization is ramped back to normal 87-92% Utilizations then ALL the large new global refineries that Have to export gasoline will have to cut capacity to fit fuels in Chemical/Domestic markets.
     
    Just too many things left out or shouldnt have been in this study that makes the change much larger and sooner that it will happen in real life.
    Regards
     

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