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Global Cold Wave May Be Looming – This Time, the Science Is Good

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This topic contains 3 replies, has 2 voices, and was last updated by  Charles Randall 11 years ago.

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  • #2380

    basil parmesan
    Participant

    Global Cold Wave May Be Looming – This Time, the Science Is Good
    by Art Horn  Monday, May 31st 2010, 11:19 AM EDT  Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
     

    La Nina, a solar minimum, and a massive volcanic eruption make a threesome of cold weather events not seen for two hundred years.

    In a cosmically ironic twist of fate and timing, nature may be set to empirically freeze any and all anthropogenic global warming talk: a blast of Arctic cold may encase the earth in an icy grip not seen for 200 years.

    This is not alarmist fantasy or 2012 babble – several natural forces that are known to cause cooling are awakening simultaneously, raising speculation of a “perfect storm” of downward pressures on global temperature. These forces let loose one at a time can cause the Earth to cool and can bring about harsh winter conditions. If they all break free at once, the effects could be felt not just in the coming winter, but year-round, and for several years to come.

    On March 20, a volcano erupted on the island of Iceland. The eruption has continued at varying intensity to this day. A volcano erupting on Iceland is not an uncommon event – the island is one of the few spots where the mid-oceanic ridge rears up out of the water, revealing its violent personality. However, this particular volcano is different – it has acted as a reliable predictor of future much more explosive and consequential activity.

    This volcano has only erupted three times since the 9th century, the last eruption occurring in the early 1820s. In the past, it has been followed by a much larger eruption by the nearby Katla volcano. Katla has erupted many times on its own, usually every 60 to 80 years, and last blew in 1918. It’s overdue.

    Magnus Tomi Gudmundson is a geophysicist at the University of Iceland, and an expert on volcanic ice eruptions:

    There is an increasing likelihood we’ll see a Katla eruption in the coming months or a year or two, but there’s no way that’s certain. . From records we know that every time Eyjafjallajokull has erupted, Katla has also erupted.

    The reason this is ominously significant is that these giant eruptions can change the weather on a planetary scale for years. Mount Laki, another large volcano in Iceland, has a history of producing climate changing eruptions. In the early summer of 1783, Laki erupted, releasing vast rivers of lava. The explosive volcano also ejected a massive amount of volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide into the air – the eruption was so violent that the ash and sulfur dioxide were injected into the stratosphere, some 8 miles up. This cloud was then swept around the world by the stratospheric winds. The result was a significant decrease in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface for several years.

    That reduction in sunlight brought about bitter cold weather across the northern hemisphere. The winter of 1784 was the coldest ever seen in New England and in Europe. New Jersey was buried under feet of snow. The Mississippi River froze all the way down to New Orleans! Ice was reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Historical records show that similar conditions existed during the following winter.

    Other eruptions have caused similar consequences. Mount Tambora in Indonesia erupted with cataclysmic force in April of 1815, the largest eruption in over 1,600 years. It also came during a time of very low solar activity, known as the “Dalton Minimum.” The following year was called “The Year Without a Summer.” During early June of 1815, a foot of snow fell on Quebec City. In July and August, lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania. Frost killed crops across New England with a resulting famine. During the brutal winter of 1816/17, the temperature fell to -32 in New York City.

    Mount Pinatubo exploded in June of 1991, after four centuries of sleep. The resultant cloud of volcanic ash in the stratosphere pounded the global temperature down a full one degree Fahrenheit by 1993. Record snowfall buried the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England during the winter of 1993/94. Those same records were shattered just two years later in the winter of 1995/96 from the effects of the reduced sunlight.

    If Eyjafjallajokull induces an eruption of Katla, that event alone could force global temperatures down for 3 to 5 years. But there is much more at work here.

    We have just exited the longest and deepest solar minimum in nearly 100 years. During this minimum, the Sun had the greatest number of spotless days (days where there were no sunspots on the face of the sun) since the early 1800s. The solar cycle is usually about 11 years from minimum to minimum – this past cycle 23 lasted 12.7 years. The long length of a solar cycle has been shown to have significant short term climate significance. Australian solar researcher Dr. David Archibald has shown that for every one year increase in the solar cycle length, there is a half-degree Celsius drop in the global temperature in the next cycle.

    Using that relationship, we could expect a global temperature drop of one degree Fahrenheit by 2020. That alone would wipe out all of the warming of the last 150 years.

    And there is yet a third player in this potential global temperature plunge.

    Since autumn of 2009, we have been under the influence of a moderately strong El Nino. El Nino is a warming of the water in the Pacific Ocean along the equator from South America to the international dateline. El Nino’s warm water adds vast amounts of heat and humidity to the atmosphere. The result is a warmer Earth and greatly altered weather patterns around the world. The current El Nino is predicted to fade out this summer, and frequently after an El Nino we see the development of La Nina, the colder sister of El Nino. La Nina’s cooler waters along the equatorial Pacific act to cool the Earth’s temperature.

    The stage could soon be set for a confluence of cold-inducing forces. A La Nina, a weaker sun, and a possible major eruption in Iceland could plunge the Earth into a period of bitter cold not seen for two hundred years.

    Forecasts of natural phenomena are notoriously difficult. However, a unique set of natural circumstances have a chance to unify into a formidable triad. All eyes will be on Iceland to see if Katla awakens from its long sleep, and if it does, the theory of man-made global warming will be handed yet another crushing blow.

    Art Horn spent 25 years working in television as a meteorologist. He now is an independent meteorologist and speaker who lives in Connecticut. He can be contacted at skychaserman@cox.net.

  • #5272

    Charles Randall
    Participant

    Refiners are going to have to start doing S/D & T/A that make sense and take them during peak product demand periods simply because they dont have anyone running economic LP models that understand losses from Full cost that over-ride marginal economic product margins. And the reason is that 4Q & 1Q weather is going to stay brutal/limit T/A work for next couple cycles which means 2Q & 3Q production / inventory builds need be pushed….. Especially if 2nd Iceland Volcano goes & the El Nino shows up as expected (Solar Min part perfect storm is already in play).
     
    Here is Good article about link between Iceland Volcanic Ash, Solar Cycle Minimum & El Nino triple impact that is based on Good science for change instead of usual Global Warming Junk Science. The GW environmental crowd are quick to jump on any extreme weather condition as proof of GW instead they are usually a repudiation based on real facts. So just in case you havent made the connection to all the bad winter weather to Iceland volcano & weak Solar cycles – read article & look at the links.
     
    Also there are some other good article links that show Glaciers are really growing & pictures volcano eruption and charts on many of forces mentioned below.
     
    1) Winter of 2011 and Beyond.. New Ice Age Upon Us? Sep 2010
    http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/12/2/3447/Winter-of-2011-and-Beyond..-New-Ice-Age-Upon-Us–
     
    2) Wikipedia -Year without Summer
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
     
    3) GLobal Cooling: What happens if the (second) Iceland volcano blows?
    http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2010/03/global-cooling-what-happens-if-the-iceland-volcano-blows/1
     
    Regards

  • #5247

    Anonymous

    <Everybody has a theory – I also had seen this claiming that the magnetic poles are shirting….maybe this is just the 4th thing to add to the triple dynamic.>
     
    Feb-04-2011 00:50
    Magnetic Polar Shifts Causing Massive Global Superstorms

    Terrence Aym Salem-News.com http://www.helium.com
     
    Superstorms can also cause certain societies, cultures or whole countries to collapse. Others may go to war with each other.
     
    (CHICAGO) – NASA has been warning about it.scientific papers have been written about it.geologists have seen its traces in rock strata and ice core samples.
    Now “it” is here: an unstoppable magnetic pole shift that has sped up and is causing life-threatening havoc with the world’s weather.
    Forget about global warmingman-made or naturalwhat drives planetary weather patterns is the climate and what drives the climate is the sun’s magnetosphere and its electromagnetic interaction with a planet’s own magnetic field.
    When the field shifts, when it fluctuates, when it goes into flux and begins to become unstable anything can happen. And what normally happens is that all hell breaks loose.
    Magnetic polar shifts have occurred many times in Earth’s history. It’s happening again now to every planet in the solar system including Earth.
    The magnetic field drives weather to a significant degree and when that field starts migrating superstorms start erupting.
    The superstorms have arrived
    The first evidence we have that the dangerous superstorm cycle has started is the devastating series of storms that pounded the UK during late 2010.
    Superstorms will not only damage agriculture across the planet leading to famines and mass starvation, they will also change coastlines, destroy cities and create tens of millions of homeless.
    Superstorms can also cause certain societies, cultures or whole countries to collapse. Others may go to war with each other.
    A Danish study published in the scientific journal Geology, found strong correlation between climate change, weather patterns and the magnetic field.
    “The earth’s climate has been significantly affected by the planet’s magnetic field, according to a Danish study published Monday that could challenge the notion that human emissions are responsible for global warming.
    “‘Our results show a strong correlation between the strength of the earth’s magnetic field and the amount of precipitation in the tropics,’ one of the two Danish geophysicists behind the study, Mads Faurschou Knudsen of the geology department at Aarhus University in western Denmark, told the Videnskab journal.
    “He and his colleague Peter Riisager, of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), compared a reconstruction of the prehistoric magnetic field 5,000 years ago based on data drawn from stalagmites and stalactites found in China and Oman.”
    In the scientific paper “Midday magnetopause shifts earthward of geosynchronous orbit during geomagnetic superstorms with Dst = -300 nT” the magnetic intensity of solar storms impacting Earth can intensify the effects of the polar shift and also speed up the frequency of the emerging superstorms.
    Pole reversal may also be initiating new Ice Age
    According to some geologists and scientists, we have left the last interglacial period behind us. Those periods are lengths of timeabout 11,500 yearsbetween major Ice Ages.
    One of the most stunning signs of the approaching Ice Age is what’s happened to the world’s precessional wobble.
    The Earth’s wobble has stopped
    As explained in the geology and space science website earthchangesmedia.com, “The Chandler wobble was first discovered back in 1891 by Seth Carlo Chandler an American astronomer.
    The effect causes the Earth’s poles to move in an irregular circle of 3 to 15 meters in diameter in an oscillation. The Earth’s Wobble has a 7-year cycle which produces two extremes, a small spiraling wobble circle and a large spiraling wobble circle, about 3.5 years apart.
    “The Earth was in October 2005 moving into the small spiraling circle (the MIN phase of the wobble), which should have slowly unfolded during 2006 and the first few months of 2007. (Each spiraling circle takes about 14 months). But suddenly at the beginning of November 2005, the track of the location of the spin axis veered at a very sharp right angle to its circling motion.
    “The track of the spin axis began to slow down and by about January 8, 2006, it ceased nearly all relative motion on the x and y coordinates which are used to define the daily changing location of the spin axis.”
    And the Earth stopped wobblingexactly as predicted as another strong sign of an imminent Ice Age.
     
    So, the start of a new Ice Age is marked by a magnetic pole reversal, increased volcanic activity, larger and more frequent earthquakes, tsunamis, colder winters, superstorms and the halting of the Chandler wobble.
     
    Unfortunately, all of those conditions are being met.

  • #5057

    Anonymous

    I had this & forgot about it – ties in with first volcano eruption & potential Global Cold wave based on several overlapping events………both volcanoes was one major points & looks like that shoe already dropped.
    Course it was less noticed because ash was heavier, dropped sooner & winds did not blow it into Europe Airplane flight-paths to shutdown airports like last time.
                                                         ————-
    Iceland’s most active volcano has started erupting – AP
    May 21, 2011 AP – Iceland’s most active and feared volcano has started erupted, according to AP reports – within the Environment forums. Some information can be seen below. Subglacial …
    According to reuters Grimsvotn erupts quite regularly….

                                         ————-
    Iceland Volcano Eruption Continues, Volcanic Ash May hit UK,France, Spain
    May 23, 2011 – Planetsave 


    The Grimsvotn volcano continues to erupt at the same levels as it has since Saturday, the eruption is reportedly “much bigger and more intensive” than Eyjafjallajkull eruption last year and 10 times bigger than Grimvotn’s eruption in 2004. However, it is not expected to have nearly the same effect on air traffic as the Eyjafjallajkull eruption (and the 2004 Gromsvotn eruption had little effect). Why?
    For one, the volcanic ash is apparently heavier, which makes it fall to the ground faster (spread less). Secondly, the air patterns are more changeable and the ash is less likely to be blown into Europe as much as Eyjafjallajkull’s ash was. And thirdly, the aviation industry has updated its volcanic ash safety procedures and requirements for such events since last year and should cut down on the impact to flights tremendously even if ash does fly into Europe.
    Based on current 5-day weather forecasts, experts predict that volcanic ash could spread to the UK by Thursday (and, subsequently. other European countries like France and Spain). However, the current forecasts are very uncertain, and no one has much certainty about what will happen.
    Iceland has cancelled all domestic flights and about 40 international flights, but flight bans could be lifted soon if the eruption slows down and volcanic ash doesn’t hang around.
    Air traffic is not expected to be as affected by this eruption even if volcanic ash spreads largely because of updates to volcanic ash guidelines in the airline industry. “Under previous guidelines, aeroplanes were summarily grounded if there was any volcanic ash in the air,” the Guardian writes. “Now, airlines can fly through ash plumes if they have a safety case demonstrating that their fleets can handle medium or high-level densities of ash.”
    Again, I’ll keep you updated with any major news as it comes in.  Information retrieved from various sources.
    Related Stories:

    1. Grmsvtn Volcano Eruption 2011 {4 VIDEOS}
    2. Iceland: Grimsvotn Volcano Eruption Triggers Local Flight Ban {VIDEO}
    3. Iceland Volcano, Grimsvotn, Erupting (not Rapture, but hey..)
    4. Why Are We Fascinated with Short-term Destruction & Fear (i.e. Volcanoes, Rapture) but Oblivious to Long-term Harms (i.e. Global Warming)?
    5. Japan Earthquake Triggered Volcano Eruption In Russia?

    —————
    No impact from Icelandic volcano for now-Eurocontrol
    Europe’s air traffic controlorganisation said on Sunday it expected no impact on European ortransatlantic flights from an Icelandic volcano eruption for atleast 24 hours.
    BRUSSELS, May 22, 2011 (Reuters) – Europe’s air traffic control organisation said on Sunday it expected no impact on European or transatlantic flights from an Icelandic volcano eruption for at least 24 hours.
    Eurocontrol said it was monitoring the situation as a plume of ash from the Grimsvotn volcano drifted towards the northeast.
    “There is currently no impact on European or transatlantic flights and the situation is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours,” Eurocontrol said in a statement.
    “Aircraft operators are constantly being kept informed of the evolving situation,” the Brussels-based organisation said.
    Iceland’s most active volcano erupted on Saturday, forcing the closure of the country’s main airport. [ID:nLDE74L05A] (Reporting by Christopher Le Coq)

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