I don’t know if anyone has seen OPIS figures on Refinery Shutdowns / Turnaround for Light Maintenance during Fall (mostly Sept – Oct) 2006 time frame …… but there will be about 35 refineries NOT taking 900,000 BPD crude during peak Oct period and average T/A will be about 14 days. About 500,000 BPD of peak will be (12) Midwest & (14) Gulf refineries.
May sound like a lot but during the four Qtr’s of last year making all the ULS diesel work/expansions/additions & tie-in’s there were abut 22 Gulf Refineries down (most in 4Q) which on top of Katrina/Rita created lot price impacts. This one is coming during slack period at end of Gasoline season (when normally see downturn and puts them in good position for increased capacity / operation for full winter cycle & not having to take one (except for new projects) in 1Q07.
I chased the numbers because about 80% of these refineries have cokers and most are doing work on the cokers (lot for all new Canadian Crude coming from newly completed pipelines into U.S. or coker expansions previously talked about) 900,000 BPD crude would give about (Charlie Ratios) 90,000 – 149,000 BPD coker charge loss which would translate to an estimated 66,000 – 100,000 metric tons of petcoke production not made during this 14 day period which would probably have just gone into inventory anyway given that petcoke price is too high at 90% – 120% some coal prices on Btu basis.