Here is report by IEA shows the NA Boom Energy (US Shale oil & CA Oil Sands) is Setting off Oil Supply Shock that is rippling through the World. You will notice they have Shale AND Bitumen crudes listed not or – since economics will dictate a blending, although initial placement has been to smaller sweet crude refineries (Suncor would have done better not to cancel Voyager). The IEA expects the NA impact over the next 5 years will equal the Impact of China’s Demand from past 15 years. …… I think they are only half right because it is going to be 2X that impact because it is happening at time when huge volumes of OPEC crude (mostly heavy) becomes re-directed into Mideast Refineries that would have spiked demand and shifted refining centers to China/Mideast Export facilities, much the way Europe refining is being re-dierected to Russia, India and China as the Europe small, simple, outdated refineries close.
<But (outside my last item) see full IEA report @ http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/may/name,38080,en.html >
You would think this would have been led by the US EIA ….. but perhaps they will do the other shoe/sequel ….. US Gasoline Import Demand Destruction (via Domestic supply) will also set off Refining Supply Shock as Global export refiners have to return to a Diesel Economy that is capped by their ability to use gasoline components despite diesel supply needs. This too will happen as China and Mideast over-capacity builds complete over the next 5 years and set off a round of consolidation and competition for a US market that just became too cheap and well supplied to import into. Perhaps with the exception of the crazy East & West coast states that allowed environmentalist to bankrupt/close their refineries – but even they will have expanded US Gulf & Midwest refineries as a cheaper back-up via product Pipelines.
Regards
