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Re:Bakken oil production: Can the giant oil formation reach 1 million barrels a day?

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#4550

Charles Randall
Participant

The original post by Paul from Fox is update from OGJ Jan 09 news item on growth of refineries (this one P66 to NJ Bayway Refinery 5yr contract) with rail deliveries of Bakken Crude. The production rates on Bakken have gone from Famine due Pipeline restrictions to Feast due Railed Crude movements. Not sure the hight (+$12.50-18.0/Bbl) rail rates will give enough margin for Bayway to survive (even if COp/P66 sells refinery) given the issues closing all/most of East Coast Refineries – especially those without cokers/less complex.

The total production for Bakken crude was given as ~728,000 b/d in Nov 2012 another new record since rate started significantly increasing from July 2011 ~350MBD gaining nearly ~25-50MB/month (course N Dakota Bakken Crude production does now include some from S Dakota ~5MBD & Montana ~50MBD.

The Bakken crude is on-target to hit 1 million bpd rate in July 2013 which only few fields in world have been able duplicate (Saudi Ghawar field, Kuwait Burgan field, Mexico Cantrarel, China Daquing and Iraq’s Kirkuk among others) as Becky’s post mentions.

The 1MMBPD rate will be moved by 700MBD rail contracts & 600MBD pipeline contracts or 1.3MMBD by the end of 2013 which should keep up with surging production rate thru first of 2014. Their are more than 18 rail terminals in N Dakota handling all rail movements which have enabled the ramp-up in production stalled by lack Pipeline completion due environmental harrasment/lawsuits/blockage.

Here is link to article with some good details on Production rates, moves by rail & P/L of Bakken Crude. < http://www.rbnenergy.com/from-a-famine-of-pipeline-to-a-feast-of-rail-giving-thanks-for-bakken-delivery >

And link Becky’s post was from OGJ chart on ” proven/probable/possible” production rates for Bakken Crude field.  But both Probable & Possible curves will be hit  this year in July & Dec 2013. If more of pipelines get completed (aka upper half of XL P/L) even more room test upper production levels will be available.  EIA/Govt/Environmentalist have all minimized potential of this formation that actual production has outstripped every year since 2009!
Regards

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