I need give heads up for petcoke market, new projects trying get approval and also get some feedback if anyone has details on outcome of these factors/events?
As follow-up to side angle about the Yangze River drought on Siemens Anqing Coking Wastewater system; I’m wondering how much the two major weather impacts are canceling each other out & why the speculation hasn’t pushed beyond fundamentals for markets and also fuels like coal/coke.
The US is major consumer products and producer of petcoke – the Mississippi is major artery for solid fuels movements and lot petcoke in storage terminals/refinery pads is exposed to contamination/loss from flood incursion. Many of refineries took protective measures which shutdown capacity and all these conditions will last weeks before and after flood peaks are reached.
China is major producer products and consumer of petcoke – the Yangze is major artery for all movements and lot incoming petcoke/coal cannot reach storage terminals/power plants which are not operating due river depth and severe water shortage. Many power & industrial plants are idled/shutdown because of shortage both water and electricity. China’s Huge 3 Georges damn will not release water (meaning it is essentially offline & water is being held reserve) while conditions exist. All these conditions have been going on since Feb and since they were susposed to be in Moonsoon season with relief rains (and are in drought) is likely last weeks/months longer.
These balances remind me of trying track down large error in refinery balance that seems be byproduct of huge factors that cancel each other out – or almost, but create third situation that is real hidden cause for imbalance. The major size and implications for prices across all sorts of Energy, Manufacturing, Trading, Shipping and Terminal markets will be far reaching and beyond past scales of comparison.
Add this onto a fragil US & Global economic recovery and at time when US economy goes flatline going into a pre-election year and stalls out in normal short 6 month recession following election (unless existing president is re-elected that is) ……. and you have big correction in all markets in making and perhaps opening of economic wounds.
Regards
