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RE: US Refinery Utilization highest 2.5yrs ??

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Charles Randall

I am still looking thru the details on news item that US utilization was 90.5% 2Q10 which I believe to be false. See other post that the number is probably in range of 84-88% depending on different capacities – lot error news item (& other consultants position) seems be around discounting the “idle” capacity which is really part of operable that includes both operating and idled.
But going thru evaluation process I am starting to believe that the numbers on production are either way off or the EIA tables must have overlooked some major US capacity increases (possibly from previous year?) that has production up great deal but isn’t on EIA/OGJ capacity list yet. 
 If we take that the US 17.6 MMBPCD is correct (17.584) and that the 90.5% utilization would then give ~15.915 MMBPCD for operation consumption…. So this gives only about ~1.6 MMBPCD offline or reduced – which seems very low.
Since there is ~735MMBPCD (+/- 70MMBPCD) listed as idled (not producing) & another ~300 MBCD net shutdown/delisted from capacity this year ……. I find it hard believe that ONLY 600 MMBPCD production is offline due normal maintenance or economics that isn’t discounted in capacity numbers but should show up on production side.
(From 2Q maintenance/shutdown operation listings of just few big ones:  Motiva Pt Arthur 275MBD was down1mo; Valero Pt Arthur 325 MBD ~1/2mo; <Both Valero/PBF Delaware & Sunoco NJ were delisted so dont count them 180+145MBD>;) . None of industry reports have done a full recap of lost capacity/production for crude or petcoke during the 2Q10 yet.
Other lost prod from Jul 2010 S/D list are:  Lyondell 268MBD ~1mo?; Valero Sunray 170MBD 1mo?;Shell Anacortes 120MBD fire dwn 3mo?;COP/WRN Borger 146MBD maint 2mo?; several others have partial S/D or down for 1-2wks on list.

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