Here is an update on the early Feb numbers for Jan 2011 exports of Maya Crude are reported to be 900,000 bpd and in line with the expectations of Oil Industry Jan Articles around an expected fall of 10% for 2011 would represent a 15 year low in Maya exports.
Although decreased production & increased demand lead the headlines – one real causes for recent sharp decline in Maya exports has been the Pemex Expansion and Upgrades to use heavy crude and convert fuel oil portion to gas & diesel products using new coking units. Minatitlan is the latest of the new coker additions (online ~Mar 2011) that were preceded by Cadereyta, Madero & Salina Cruz (may be delayed) adding delayed coking units (a fluid coker already existed at Tula Hidalgo) making the total coking capacity 230MBD at the end of 1Q2011. A coking Project is in process at Salamanca refinery and adding delayed coker at Tula is in planning (total 6 Pemex refinery expansions & coker additions counting a new 7th Grassroots refinery now postphoned/canceled).
The large increase in coker charge capacity allows the combined refineries to process double that volume as additional Maya crude (~560MBD) thru these refineries (or swap out lighter more expensive domestic crudes for Maya).
This becomes very good move for Pemex which prior to cokers had been selling cheap heavy crude & fuel oil and having to buy back expensive diesel product. But the US refineries, several of whom are joint ventures with Pemex, could suffer from the reduced crude supply unless Pemex finally opens exploration to US majors who have the capability to reach the large offshore Heavy Crude fields that Pemex has been unable to develop for offsetting the Cantrel & Zaap existing field production declines.
Regards
