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RE: Update 3 – China Sinopec Qingdao Ref (&Coker) – Run 70% July

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#6543

Charles Randall
Participant

Amit,
Sorry I only track new refineries & projects that are connected to coking unit additions. And I think if your covering Asian Oil & Gas you should be telling us how many are coming online in short term / next 2 years. (:
 
I guess I also dont see that brokers/mutual fund analysts/some investment firms bring a lot of positive synergy into the refining sector so I an not normally inclined to provide lot specific information anyway. (Especially since none of you guys ever offer to pay for information when you ask or offer trade useable exchange information).
 
Also I am still not sure what kind capacity you are looking at either – the Huizhou is grassroots refinery (with coker) while Dalian, Fuzian & Qingdao (last 2 have coker additions also) I believe are existing refineries that are just expanding/adding capacity; so what kind/type refinery capacity addition you are looking at escapes me.
 
I will say that either way you grossly under-estimate the number of refinery capacity additions for 2008-9(even for just the ones with cokers – like Huizhou that already started up & has already put in for another capacity doubling). There were over 17-22 new China coker addition projects which were either grassroots or expansions that will come online between 2008-2011 (& largest group are in before end 2009) and that is not counting several (~5) additional/new JV projects that I have already posted recently on this website …… course most of these will likely be outside the 2009 time frame given +30 months lead construction time for coker installations.
 
I have been tracking down coker projects because there is such bad information on both number & type refineries in China. The O&G Journal 2007 WW Refining Survey is one worst with only 52 China refineries & only 8 those listed with cokers!!
Truth is there are nearly 41-43 Government (Sinopec & Petrochina) refineries with cokers, and of the +85 Independent refineries nearly 42-44 have cokers as well (counting the all Petchem Complex/Refineries like CNOOC’s) – these are often difficult to follow because without government subsidies most these independents have been down (or greatly reduced rates) over 2004-2008 time frame due to economics around cost +$100/Bbl crude with government capped $0.90/gallon fuel products price.
 
Regards

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