Here is update on Suncor’s coke solution (today both Suncor & Syncrude put lot petcoke into ~permenant storage). While a Lot details are ~ in right range, there are lot others are way off (ie Suncor does make about 2.5-3.0 mm tpy but it only burns about 750 kmpty not 1 mm tpy and it has been shipping about 350-500 kmtpy to asia via Sinoway (met agent at McCloskey Petcoke convention). Suncor has 2 coking units (8 drum & 6 drum -just finished add +2 drums) which makes ~3 mm tpy they mention but will ramp up to ~4mm tpy when last 2 drums on 2nd coking unit get enough feedstock from Firebag stage. They plan on a 3rd upgrader with a 3rd coking (6 drum) unit by 2012 but best it could produce would be ~2.5-3 mm tpy additonal so not sure where they get 9 mm tpy total (unless they are counting Syncrudes fluid coke also).
I understand they finally did put in 10-15 mile local railway to get to major CN Canada railroad for shipment to West coast on petcoke exports that eleminated portion of bigger trucking cost and is one reason (outside price increase) export volume is above the 350 kmtpy. Think most railroad stuff might be correct. But wouldn’t be charging full ahead on this looking at what is likely happen in next 6 months or so in economy and current commodity prices!!
I think the unwinding of speculation impacts on commodities, the financial problems US and upcoming recession cycle will have lot to do about correcting the current unrealistic $200/ton FOB coal & petcoke prices that are driving this effort (still it will be good once it gets in place & it would be used) – however just read some UBS technical reports that claims July 11, 2008 this year the S&P/DJ markets crossed same “Technical death cross sell point” indicator that market had before the 2001 collapse (just name that point scares crap out me – I felt 2001 market downfall). And from looks charts everyone needs buckle for next 6-8 months!
<I usually take economic projections with grain salt but if Really wanted terrorize you I would tell you about trying read thru Dec 2007 article on 4th Knodratieff Cycle Winter stage (downward) that they say 4th Winter cycle really started in 2000 and will continue (same as other 3 Long waves) for next 8-20 years (we are already at 8 yr mark so guess this means 2013-2020 before it ends) and points out lot speculation, commodities price & financial weakness today is as bad as in the 1920 cycle! Course these wave cycles overlap and 5th wave has already started Here is link Bolder Investments pdf July series: (see @ http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/pdf/07_12_04_News.pdf )>