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RE: StratoilHydro NAOSC Upgrader delayed 2016

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#6818

Charles Randall
Participant

Here is update on StatoilHydro Canada OS Upgrader – Upgrader delayed 2016 <Also see response Guest Question Total Upgrader – coking.com post April 2008). Looks like Statoil’s getting a little “wussie” if their LT plans are being shifted by current Short Term situations/potentials.
 
The article doesn’t really speak to the pilot plant that was due online 2009/2010 producing 10 MBD bitumen crude. The phased Upgrader was planned to go 200 MBD by end 2020 & was expected to contain upgrader coking units.
 
The NAOSC upgrader project originally expected cost to be $7.5 Billion which then doubled to $15 Billion (due to cost escalation & long lead time) which is now expected to be on the low side. Understandable that Statoil might slide timeline by 2 years due cost & uncertainty of laws but …… it is going to cost them substantial more doing that non-sense because US$ will strengthen, the region will become even more developed and Steel is only going to cost more. Since the $2 Billion purchase last year was ~257 acres of leased land, it will be interesting to see if Statoil will be able to just “sit” on this lease with little to no development for +6 years in hot Alberta / Athabassca region already supporting numerous upgrader projects coming online in the next 5 years.
 
If they think cost/ steel will get cheaper than now they need view new Simmons presentation (May 2008) “Oil & Gas Rust is Worse than Depletion”.. which shows how big enemy Rust has become for the oil industry – and entire worldwide oil industry is going to need begin serious level of replacement for all upstream & downstream oil assets that has wrapped itself in steel that has continued to corrode past repair & due to low earnings & environmental blocks spread over past decades – that did not support much more than new coat paint. 
 
Regards

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