The refineries that close are lot different category than those that have shutdown – both impact capacity.
It is still too early for most of standard reports that show annual 2009 closures (ie EIA, OGJ WW Refinery summary).
Usually these are good 80/20 starting point to see if they were really closed or just delisted (ie Citgo Asphalt refineries that were sold Nustar is example). Also keey eye out for refineries that were closed but most of the units were linked to the competitors nearby refinery (Clark Hartford’s coker is now part Woodriver). There are always a lot of refineries initially listed as shutdown but end up being sold to competitor or foreign oil company which are not closures just relabeling. Just takes a while for owner to accept the $0.15-0.40/$1 cost value on refinery (sometimes $0.60/$1.0 if there is lot regional stations/marketing or some integrated crude/gas supplies involved). Since stupid environmentalist have 35 yr road block against any new US refineries – these resale refineries are only game in town for new assets which are runing about 2X historical values per Bbl capacity in countries (most undeveloped that are free from Kyoto rules) that are installing them.
Shutdowns is big chore & no one is going to do the lost capacity for you (unless you subscribe to one subscriptions that track them for some portion of industry – or buy one their multiclient studies). You will of course have do follow up work on items they miss. Starting points for shutdown capacity loss is track shutdown schedules – like we have under maintenance – then do math on stream day capacity times average monthly utilization to get lost volume coke/crude/gasoline/diesel/ect.
