This is interesting read on changing order of Global crude production from both snapshot of projected 2010 and overview of collective developments. The new number one is of course Russia, but nearly as interesting is that Mexico has dropped nearly 1.0 million bpd and will be importing by 2020 unless they develop known fields.
Another interesting aspect is that even though Norway seems to have lost nearly 500 kbpd production (just under 2.0 million bpd) there has been a significant find that wont come online for next 5 years which could foil someone just following numbers (as in Mexico’s case). Last area not apparent is that the top 5 South America producers Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Colombia & Ecuador also do not show big changes developing there. Brazil is becoming a new powerhouse by 2020 (equal to todays #5 producer China) although domestic use may capture lot increase, or that current #11 Venezuela will be dropping unless it gets all investment it has announced despite capitalizing all previous investors assets during first part this decade. And #29 Colombia has already jumped past #24 Argentina (Australia, Oman & Malaysia as well) even though until 2008 its production has been flat. It has become a hotter producer ever since several exiled Venezuelan upstream workers signed on to put their skills towards develop Colombia’s fields.
I believe the snapshot & collective reviews are leaving out the huge US field in Bakken, as well as Heavy Bitumen (+400 Billion Bbl reserves) in both California & Texas. And the consumption demands are still projecting a export driven global rate that belongs back with speculated / credit driven economies pre-Great Recession that are unlikely to be returning on recoveries. Especially not in next 5 years when current Great Recession recovery phase bumps up against the normal small 4-5 year recession of 6-12 months in 2012-13 time frame.