Just out looks like the NOAA folks are saying that they expect lot of storms to become hurricanes and potentially match the 2005 season.
They have been off a lot last few years & not sure I buy this forecast either. The El Nino that was protecting US has gone (2009 was lowest number storms/hurricanes on record because of it) …….. but on most active years we would already have seen several between end Mar – first June despite official label that season starts in June. Also the peak period of Aug – mid Oct most of the time those storms go on outside Florida / East Coast of US and go into Atlantic disapate. So it just leaves Gulf to hunker down from June – August and hope they are wrong again.
As crosscheck – I believe that lot El Nino/La Nina events and hurricane activity are connected to our Sun’s 9-10 year Sunspot activity and so far the end of #23 / start of #24 cycles have been one longest low activity periods & #sunspots on record so far.
Regards
