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RE: Excess Refining Capacity Weighs on Oil & Gas Majors

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Charles Randall

This statement reminds me of the verse in a song “Baby you ain’t seen nothing yet”! Majors being “Aware – is one great UNDERSTATEMENTS”.
Wait till all new mega refineries in Mideast, India & China are online at end the next coker cycle (2012-2016) and trying export Gasoline/Diesel their diesel driven domestic demand cannot use! All new global expansions at end of this coker cycle (2006-2011) are going to hurt utilizations (as they mention) – especially lower gasoline demands partly due to all ridiculous push for ETOH to go above 10% blends until it gets reversed by food crisis & prices/damage car MPG/consumer revolts – which has already started on E15 shoveback by consumers in Europe & some parts US.
The Utilizations below 75% are not profitable or sustainable and without a over-active gasoline consuming US demand to export into – Global refining is headed back to diesel driven utilization (for non-petrochemical integrated refiners that is) which locked Africa, Latin/Sout America, Russia & Europe into the 75-80% utilizations for decades. Most of India, China & Mideast refineries will be integrated with petrochemical plants enough to avoid diesel choke point EXCEPT for those worldscale plants designed to be Export driven.

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