Here is another update on Essar Vadinar’s new coker & impact to its Fuel Oil export cargoes = stopping the 2 cargoes/month after last April shipment to Cargill.
Most coker project news often leave out the elemination of fuel oil or asphalt sales (ie COP/WRN Woodriver new coker eleminates need 40MBD asphalt sales). Charts for US showed that demand fuel oil/asphalt bottomed out ~2008 and actually began to rise as cumulative coker additions dried up surplus volumes and market price along with demand started rising after over 20 years of decline. A similar process is being played out worldwide and especially in China & India as mentioned here.
Having market price of alternate fuel oil & asphalt rise and spread between these bottom products and coker feedstock decrease is not a good thing for coker projects ……. however it is unlikely that the HFO or Asphalt price will exceed crude price (especially when sulfur levels now require higher level of diesel/product cutters for bottoms resids thereby decreasing value costwise) whereas coker products will (rule thumb value past for average value coker products is ~75% diesel price which is often at or above curde).
Regards