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Offline Question: What is timing on Fuel Conversion of Anode/Calcinable Cokers?
A: Usually when I talk about coker projects/list/conversions – I do so in terms of Coker Addition cycles which run in 4-6yr cycles. The recent cycles have been ~
1992-1998, 1999-2005, 2006-2011, and next one is 2012-2017. Usually initial & final years of cycle have very few projects historically.
The Fuel Conversions of Anode coke producers I have been refering to are in current cycle 2006-2011 and majority have already happened. Few stragglers due delays will complete in 2012 & 2013 cycle and so will technically be in next coker cycle.
Because of the doubled cost of projects in this cycle for equipment/labor/construction and strange Refinery & Coker margins due to “Great Recession” and US Cushing Crude Glut – many progests were canceled or delayed and will be canidates for next cycle or the one after (just as Mexico/Petrobras/Venezuela cokers often listed as planning stage several cycles before they actually went to EPC/Construction phase).