Here is update on East Coast Refinery Closures by Bloomberg – evidently they did not get news Sunoco moved up July 2012 closure to Dec 2011 6 months earlier.
The $4 gasoline/fuels estimate would be min – much more likely they will be paying the $0.90-1.50/gal premium that West Coast now pays for its over regulated specifications and anti Oil industry posture that is closing refineries & stripping economics away there. The East Coast will leap ahead of this premium because its already at 50%+ closure rate and going to be dependent on Pipelines or imports (from countries that have +$8/gal fuel values).
The cost hit will likely be moderated by current US under utilization of refining capacity (~80-85% of “Operable” Capacity) and weak demand due high unemployment rates.